Graded market caps on modern sets: what's big, what's selling, and what moved in June

The five biggest PSA 10 piles

Sorted by PSA 10 market cap across the full lake, the order is not close. Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat (Van Gogh) leads at roughly $140M (~$2,919 × 47,978 pop). Nothing else is close. Umbreon VMAX is second at $92M. Paldean Fates Mew ex, Phantasmal Flames Mega Charizard X ex, and 151 Charizard ex fill the rest of the top five between $46M and $50M.

% pop sold = June PSA 10 sales ÷ PSA 10 population. % mcap sold = June PSA 10 $ volume ÷ PSA 10 market cap (what share of the pile's dollar value traded). Same rates in every table below. Numbers are from research freeze psa10_snapshot.json (2026-07-09), not ad-hoc live edits.

Flow undercuts the size ranking. Van Gogh sold about 0.13% of its PSA 10 population in June and about 0.12% of its market cap in dollars. Umbreon and 151 Charizard sit under 0.5% on both rates. Of the five, only Mega Charizard X clears a clearly higher bar (about 1.8% of pop, 1.3% of mcap). Headline market cap describes inventory. June rates describe whether that inventory traded. Whole sets make the same split measurable at set scale.

Sets that look big vs sets that sold

At set grain, Evolving Skies is the heaviest modern book in this cut: about $207M of PSA 10 market cap across 99 cards. Van Gogh alone is still about two-thirds of that entire set. Concentration in a handful of cards is the rule, not the exception.

English releases on or after July 8, 2025 total about $138.83M PSA 10 market cap across 334 cards and 314,987 PSA 10s. One promo roughly equals one year of modern English PSA 10 value. That is a concentration fact, not a prediction.

Re-rank the same sets by June turnover and Evolving Skies falls toward the slow end of this basket (about 0.5% of PSA 10 pop and mcap sold). 151 and Prismatic sit mid-pack on size and nearer 2% on activity. Ascended Heroes is the structural flip: only $21.5M of PSA 10 market cap, but about 13% of its PSA 10 population and 7.7% of its market cap traded in June. Size rank and sales-share rank are different orders. If you only watch total mcap, you will overweight warehouses and underweight the sets that actually cleared.

Most liquid June cards

Same two rates as above, restricted to last-year chase cards. Turnover concentrates in Ascended Heroes. The table defaults to % of mcap sold so cards that cleared the largest share of their own dollar pile rise first.

Mega Dragonite ex and Pikachu ex sold about 9% of their PSA 10 populations in June, and about 7-8% of their market caps in dollars. That is a different liquidity regime from Van Gogh or Evolving Skies rainbows: smaller gem piles, much higher monthly share of the pile changing hands.

Mega Charizard X ex SIR is the hybrid case: top-five size with more June activity than the older giants (about 1.8% of pop, 1.3% of mcap). Mega Gengar ex sits between those poles (about 5% of pop, 4% of mcap). The Black Bolt / White Flare BWRs and Mega Evolution SIRs land around 1-2% on both rates: steady turnover, not a flush.

High-turnover cards beyond the headlines

The chase table above is the cards everyone already tracks. First, the box plot shows how volume turnover is distributed across cards inside each modern set (median line, 25–75% box, whiskers). Then the table lists individual high-turnover cards outside TOP5/CHASE: ≥2% of pop or mcap sold in June, pop ≥ 100, mcap ≥ $150K, price ≥ $20, ≥10 June PSA 10 sales. Sorted by volume turnover by default.

Read the table top-down. Psyduck IR (Ascended Heroes) leads: about 26% of its PSA 10 pop and 22% of its mcap sold in June on a ~$413K pile. Mega Charizard Y ex MHR is next (~23% pop / 19% mcap). Two Mega Dragonite ex printings (mega attack rare and MHR) sit right behind at 18% and 15% of pop. The rest of the top half is still Ascended Heroes — Pikachu IR, Lillie's Clefairy IR, mega-attack Gengar — double-digit turnover on sub-$5M piles.

Then the quieter 2–4% band: cards people do not treat as headline chases. Phantasmal Flames Mega Charizard X ex RR and Mega Gengar ex RR (sub-$100 PSA 10), Black Bolt Haxorus IR and Serperior ex, White Flare Oshawott IR and Keldeo ex, Phantasmal Flygon IR. Same rates as the columns below — pop sold and volume turnover — not absolute June dollars.

Same June PSA 10 rates as above. Excludes cards already listed in the top five and chase tables. Source: research freeze psa10_snapshot.json (high_turnover_other).

Practical read: Psyduck IR turned harder than most of the SIR chase list, and a strip of ~$80–$300 RR/IR PSA 10s still cleared 2–4% while Van Gogh and Evolving Skies barely moved. Sort by % pop sold or volume turnover if you want the full ranking — the rows match the numbers above.

What the data says

PSA 10 market cap is a stock measure. June % pop sold and % mcap sold are flow measures. In this freeze, the largest PSA 10 piles barely turned; Ascended Heroes and a long tail of mid-price IRs cleared much larger shares of their own books (often 2–4%, sometimes double digits). If you size risk, list price, or portfolio weight from market cap alone, you are reading warehouses as if they were cash.

The operational rule is narrow: for any card or set you care about, pair market cap with a recent sales-share rate before you treat the pile as liquid. A $50M book that sold 0.4% of itself last month and a $5M book that sold 9% are not the same market, even when both look "big" in a headline.

These tables are a snapshot. To check market cap and June-style liquidity on the cards and sets you hold — not just the ones in this post — use SilphCo Pro.